Duke enters the 2026-27 season as the clear No. 1 program in BasketBoss scoring margin projections, driven by the return of Cooper Flagg and a deep, experienced roster.
Duke University enters the 2026-27 college basketball season as the consensus No. 1 program in BasketBoss scoring margin projections, posting a projected +21.1 margin — the highest in Division I. The Blue Devils' offensive efficiency (84.2 PPG projected) combined with their elite defensive unit (63.1 PPG allowed) creates a gap between Duke and the rest of the field that hasn't been seen since the peak Kentucky era.
The driving force behind Duke's projection is the return of Cooper Flagg, the consensus preseason National Player of the Year. Flagg, who averaged 18.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists as a freshman, chose to return for his sophomore season rather than enter the NBA Draft — a decision that immediately vaulted Duke to the top of every major projection model.
Alongside Flagg, the Blue Devils return Kon Knueppel (14.6 PPG) and Khaman Maluach (12.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG), giving head coach Jon Scheyer one of the most talented returning frontcourts in recent memory. The addition of two portal transfers at guard rounds out what projects as a complete, NBA-caliber roster.
From a scoring margin standpoint, Duke's +21.1 projection puts them 3.2 points ahead of second-ranked Kansas (+17.9). Historically, teams with a projected margin above +18 have won the national championship in over 60% of seasons, according to BasketBoss historical modeling.
The Blue Devils open the season ranked No. 1 in the AP Preseason Poll and are the consensus favorite at most major sportsbooks. Their toughest early-season test comes in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, where they are projected to face Michigan State.